Forecasts indicate a potential strong El Niño event for late 2026

The United States Climate Prediction Center has reported a high probability of the El Niño phenomenon emerging between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance of continuing through the winter of 2026-2027. Following a period of below-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific from August 2025 to February 2026, temperatures have risen since April 2026. Climate models suggest significant warming will occur in the coming months. Current projections indicate that a strong or very strong El Niño event is likely between November 2026 and January 2027. Some models even suggest the development of an extremely strong episode that could potentially surpass the intensity of historic events recorded in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The scientific community continues to monitor these oceanic surface fluctuations to determine the final strength of the expected climate pattern.