WMO report forecasts record global temperatures through 2030

A report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), prepared with the UK Met Office, forecasts that global surface temperatures will likely reach record levels between 2026 and 2030. Researchers estimate a 75% probability that the average global temperature for the entire five-year period will exceed the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, there is a 91% probability that at least one of these years will surpass the 1.5°C limit, and an 86% chance that at least one year will be the hottest on record, exceeding 2024. Temperatures are projected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). An El Nino event, expected in late 2026, could make 2027 a potential record-breaking year. Additionally, Arctic winter temperatures are predicted to rise 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average. Sources emphasize that rising carbon emissions from fossil fuels continue to drive these trends, leading to more extreme weather events globally.