Global oil trade faces supply chain shifts following Strait of Hormuz closure

Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, following tensions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, global oil markets are navigating severe supply chain disruptions. According to analysts at Kpler, approximately 166 tankers carrying 170 million barrels of oil are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. Clearing this backlog and restoring full transit capacity is expected to take up to three months, as vessels must move slowly and prioritize emptying stored reserves. Lloyd’s List and Goldman Sachs report that the region may face a permanently divided waterway where shipping is dictated by political alignment with Tehran and the risk of U.S. sanctions. Western commercial vessels remain reluctant to navigate the passage, fearing both conflict and regulatory violations. While some market participants await a diplomatic resolution, others warn that oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon. The current situation represents a historic interruption in maritime traffic and energy logistics.