Escalating tensions and oil market volatility following US-Iran conflict
Global oil prices rose by over 4% on July 13, 2026, amid intense military exchanges between the United States and Iran. Following US airstrikes on multiple targets, including Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Jask, Iranian forces responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade and a 20% levy on cargo transit through the Strait of Hormuz, though he simultaneously claimed the strait remained open. Iran declared the strait closed indefinitely after claiming a vessel violated transit protocols. Shipping data from Kpler indicated that only six ships crossed the strait on Sunday, the lowest volume in five weeks. While US Central Command reported defensive actions against Iranian missiles and drones, regional authorities are attempting diplomatic outreach, as evidenced by recent talks in Muscat between Iran and Oman. Market analysts at Gelber & Associates warn that the supply disruption and restricted maritime traffic are driving the current volatility in Brent and WTI prices.