Europe faces potential aviation fuel supply challenges amid Middle East instability

Europe currently holds approximately 38 million barrels of aviation fuel, representing less than 30 days of consumption as of early June. This reserve level is significantly lower than the United States, which maintains stockpiles three times larger. The European Commission notes that while supplies remain stable due to increased domestic refinery production and imports from nations including the U.S., Canada, Nigeria, India, Kuwait, and South Korea, the market is described as fragile. The reliance on imports has grown following a long-term decline in domestic refining capacity. Concerns persist regarding the security of maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for 20% of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas. Despite these geopolitical risks, the Commission reports no immediate threats to energy security for the winter of 2026–2027. Targets for filling natural gas storage facilities remain on track to be met. The situation is being closely monitored by the European Commission’s Energy Union Task Force.