Global coffee prices reach two-year low before late-June rebound

In June 2026, global coffee prices recorded a 2.8% decline compared to May, reaching their lowest levels in nearly two years. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), prices averaged 248.90 cents per pound during the month. The market exhibited significant volatility, with prices initially dropping to 231.96 cents per pound by June 9, followed by a sharp recovery to 272.39 cents per pound by the end of the month.

The International Coffee Organization identified weather conditions as the primary driver of this market instability. While improved supply outlooks initially pressured prices downward, concerns regarding the potential impact of the El Nino phenomenon, which is expected to escalate into a 'Super El Nino' by the end of 2026, prompted the late-month rebound. Factors such as declining exports in May and existing inventory shortages have further complicated the market dynamics, as stakeholders closely monitor climate-related production risks.

The global coffee market remains highly sensitive to environmental forecasts, with the ICO emphasizing that climate developments will continue to dictate pricing trends. Current market analysis suggests that while short-term supply data may look positive, the looming threat of extreme weather patterns remains the central variable affecting global coffee production and trade strategies.