Cyprus Institute warns of billions in economic losses due to extreme heat by 2050

A new study by the Cyprus Institute warns that extreme heat could lead to cumulative economic losses for the Cyprus economy ranging from €2.3 billion to €3.8 billion by 2050. Researchers highlight that the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose severe risks to worker health and productivity, particularly in the construction, agriculture, and tourism sectors.

By analyzing climate and biological data, the institute calculated heat stress indicators for various work intensities. The study estimates that lost economic output due to rising temperatures could reach €101 million by 2030, representing 0.4% of the nation's GDP, and climb to €303 million by 2050, or 0.7% of GDP. These findings are based on a moderate climate change scenario compared to the 1980–2020 baseline.

Contextually, the report draws parallels with international climate impacts, such as the UK heatwave last June, which caused over £1 billion in losses. The researchers emphasize that these figures assume no significant adaptation measures are taken in the workplace. Without intervention, workers are expected to face an increasing number of days where tasks must be suspended due to unsafe thermal conditions.