Turkey faces energy supply risks amid new US threats against Iran

Recent warnings from Scott Bessent regarding potential US economic sanctions against Iran have created significant uncertainty for Turkey, one of Iran's largest trading partners. While Ankara officially ceased importing Iranian crude oil in 2019 to comply with previous US sanctions, the two nations maintained robust economic ties. By 2024, total bilateral trade reached approximately $5.5 billion, with Turkey recording a trade surplus of about $642 million.

Energy security remains the most critical concern. In 2025, Iran supplied 7.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey, accounting for 13% of its total consumption. This made Iran the fourth-largest gas supplier for the country, trailing only Russia, Azerbaijan, and the United States. Despite previous geopolitical tensions, including initial phases of the regional conflict and direct missile incidents, Turkey continued these imports under a long-standing 25-year bilateral agreement.

As the US threatens further economic isolation of Tehran, Ankara faces the difficult task of balancing its international commitments as a Western ally with its vital need for reliable energy supplies. While the situation remains fluid, officials in Ankara have not yet announced a definitive strategy for replacing these energy flows should Washington strictly enforce its new restrictive policies.