Analysis suggests Putin fears political downfall and personal danger if the war in Ukraine ends

Nearly five years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, analysts and reports from the Kremlin inner circle indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin views the conflict as existential. Concerns have emerged that ending the war without achieving key strategic objectives could lead to his removal from power and pose a direct threat to his personal safety, with some sources claiming he has privately voiced fears of execution.

Domestic stability in Russia is reportedly fraying as the conflict enters its fifth year. Recent polls from the independent Levada Center indicate that 57% of Russians describe the national situation as tense, a sentiment exacerbated by frequent Ukrainian drone strikes reaching deep into Russian territory. Elite circles within the Kremlin are also expressing frustration, viewing the protracted duration of the military campaign as a failure, regardless of the eventual military outcome. As international and domestic pressure mounts, Putin appears to perceive continued military escalation as the only viable method to maintain his grip on power.