Marine Le Pen leads French presidential polls as Macron's term nears end

A new poll conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive between September 8 and 10, 2026, indicates that right-wing leader Marine Le Pen maintains a significant lead ahead of the upcoming French presidential elections. As President Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term draws to a close, the survey highlights a sharp polarization within the French electorate.

According to the data, Le Pen is projected to secure between 33% and 36% of the vote in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate for the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party, is currently positioned to reach the second round in three out of five tested scenarios, with a tie in a fourth. However, the projections suggest that Le Pen would comfortably defeat Mélenchon in a head-to-head runoff. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe remains the only center-right candidate competitive enough to rival Mélenchon, having secured a lead or a tie in select scenarios, while other candidates lag behind in all polling models.

The findings underscore the shifting political landscape as France prepares for a post-Macron era. With the electoral field becoming increasingly defined by these two extremes, the upcoming campaign period is expected to reflect deep divisions among voters regarding the country's future direction.