Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz experiences severe decline

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has experienced a significant downturn as geopolitical tensions in the Gulf persist and diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled. According to data from the weekend of September 20-21, 2026, only 12 merchant vessels traversed the strategic waterway, a notable drop compared to 35 recorded during the previous period. In recent days, some daily passage figures have reached as low as three or four ships.

The crisis has evolved from a primarily energy-focused disruption into a broader logistics shock. Container ship traffic has collapsed by 94%, with only 11 out of 99 pre-war shipping services remaining operational. While oil tankers continue to transit the area under high-security risks, the decline in dry bulk exports, including limestone and sulfur, has forced companies to seek alternative routes via Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Oman. The port of Jebel Ali is currently operating under capacity.

Experts note that available statistics may not fully reflect the actual volume of traffic, as many vessels are choosing to navigate the region with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off. This development marks a deepening of the "two-speed" status of the Strait, where essential energy exports persist while general commercial logistics are severely restricted.