Europe faces major jet fuel shortage as regional conflicts disrupt supplies

Europe is bracing for a severe jet fuel shortage in the final quarter of 2026, as ongoing conflicts in Iran have significantly disrupted traditional supply routes from the Middle East. With regional imports from that area having fallen by nearly half, European buyers have been forced to secure alternative shipments from distant markets, including South Korea. According to Kpler and LSEG data, imports from South Korea reached approximately 129,000 barrels per day in September, the highest level recorded since October 2022.

Market analysis from Energy Aspects projects a daily deficit of approximately 510,000 barrels of jet fuel in Europe for the fourth quarter. In contrast, the United States is expected to maintain a small surplus of 18,000 barrels per day, while the Asia-Pacific region anticipates a larger surplus of 419,000 barrels. To mitigate the shortfall, Europe has diversified its procurement strategy by increasing purchases from the United States, Canada, and Nigeria, alongside the surging volumes from the Asia-Pacific region.

The volatility in global energy markets is expected to intensify as the geopolitical situation remains unstable. These supply chain shifts highlight Europe's growing dependence on the Asian market to maintain its aviation fuel requirements for the remainder of the year.