Russia and Ukraine shift grain exports to Baltic ports due to Black Sea conflict

In September 2026, Russia and Ukraine began repurposing maritime terminals in the Baltic and Arctic regions to sustain grain exports. This strategic shift comes as ongoing drone and military attacks have severely disrupted traditional shipping routes across the Black Sea, which previously handled approximately 90% of Russian grain exports.

Russian firms are retrofitting existing infrastructure, such as the private Ultramar terminal in the Baltic port of Ust-Luga—which has a capacity of 37 million metric tons and formerly focused on fertilizers—to accommodate grain shipments. Similarly, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture announced intentions to utilize Baltic ports as an alternative to their Danube River facilities. While the Danube route became the primary exit point for Ukrainian goods following the blockade of Black Sea ports, it faces significant challenges, including logistical congestion and increased costs of approximately 50 dollars per metric ton, which renders the grain less competitive on the global market.

As both nations struggle to maintain export volumes amid the escalating naval conflict, the shift to northern ports represents a critical attempt to stabilize supply chains. Future operations will depend on the capacity of Baltic terminals to handle the influx and the ability of both countries to manage the higher logistical costs associated with these longer transit routes.