Recent polls show tight race between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazilian elections

New polls in Brazil indicate a neck-and-neck contest for the presidency between incumbent Luis Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro as the October election approaches. According to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey of 5,015 voters conducted between September 17 and 22, Lula leads with 47.7% against Bolsonaro’s 47.4% in a hypothetical runoff. A separate Datafolha survey of 2,002 respondents on September 22-23 shows a wider lead for the president, placing him at 47% compared to 45% for the senator.

In the first round scheduled for October 4, polls show Lula currently trailing below the 50% threshold required for an outright victory. The AtlasIntel data places Lula at 45.8%, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 43.4%, and other candidates including Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, and Ronaldo Caiado. Should no candidate secure an absolute majority, a runoff election is mandated for October 25.

Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for his involvement in a 2022 coup attempt. The candidates are now in the final stages of campaigning, with voters weighing the incumbent's performance against the opposition's platform as the first round of voting nears.