Brazil heads to presidential elections amid deep political polarization

Brazil is set to hold presidential elections this Sunday with 13 candidates on the ballot. Current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is expected to lead the first round but likely fall short of the absolute majority required to avoid a runoff. A potential second round is scheduled for October 25, where he would face Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The political climate remains tense, leading to the cancellation of a final televised debate on TV Globo after both lead candidates declined to participate.

Datafolha polling released on Thursday suggests that in a hypothetical second-round matchup, Lula would secure 48% of the vote against 45% for Flavio Bolsonaro, marking a slight increase in support compared to previous surveys. The election is viewed as a pivotal moment for Latin America’s largest nation, determining whether it will adopt a conservative shift seen in the region or continue on a different path. Contextually, the campaign is overshadowed by the previous year's conviction of Jair Bolsonaro, who was found guilty of planning a coup following his 2022 election defeat, a legal action criticized by international figures like Donald Trump as a politically motivated maneuver.