Middle East crude oil exports exceed pre-war levels despite regional instability

Data from shipping monitor Kpler indicates that crude oil exports from Middle Eastern nations, excluding Iran, exceeded pre-war levels during the final week of September. For the first time since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, the average daily exports surpassed the previous benchmark of 18 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd on specific days, including September 24 and the period from September 27 to 29.

This increase has occurred despite ongoing daily attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has restricted passage, and reports suggest that tankers are increasingly utilizing the Red Sea and other alternative routes to maintain global supply chains. As of October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd. The Kpler figures cover shipments from Gulf terminals, ship-to-ship transfers, and transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. In addition to crude oil, the volume of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also reached its highest monthly level since February, demonstrating a significant adaptation by regional producers to current geopolitical conditions.