Middle East shifts three years after October 7

Three years have passed since the October 7, 2023, attacks in southern Israel, which left approximately 1,200 dead and 251 people taken hostage. This event triggered an extensive cycle of conflict that fundamentally altered regional dynamics and transformed a proxy-based confrontation between Israel and Iran into an open war. The subsequent Israeli military campaigns in Gaza resulted in mass displacement, significant infrastructure destruction, and thousands of Palestinian fatalities.

Today, the strategic landscape has shifted significantly. Hamas and Hezbollah have been notably weakened, and the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed, marking a period of deep uncertainty. Despite these substantial military and geopolitical changes, the region has not achieved greater stability. Experts note that while Israel has secured military successes against longstanding adversaries, the destruction of these opponents has not automatically translated into a sustainable peace or enhanced regional security.

Currently, many nations that previously invested in economic development and de-escalation are seeking additional security guarantees amidst the volatile climate. The ongoing reality suggests that military superiority has created space for political action but has not served as a replacement for a functional political order in the Middle East.