IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent due to AI investment

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its global economic outlook, projecting growth of 3.1% for 2026. This figure, released during the annual meetings in Bangkok, represents a modest increase from the 3% forecast issued in July, though it remains lower than the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025. The Fund expects further expansion to reach 3.4% in 2027.

Driving this resilience is a surge in investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which has created a significant demand shock. This trend is particularly benefiting advanced economies that develop AI platforms and emerging nations involved in hardware supply chains, including Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, and Mexico. The IMF estimates that AI investment could boost growth in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point and in emerging markets by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point.

Regional forecasts were also adjusted, with the eurozone outlook raised to 1.1% from 0.9%, supported by increased defense spending and supply chain integration. The United Kingdom’s growth forecast saw an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%. Despite these positive indicators, the IMF warned that ongoing energy supply shocks, high prices, and the conflict in the Middle East present significant risks that could undermine future stability. The meetings in Bangkok continue throughout the week with participation from 191 member nations.