Energy prices volatility amid Middle East instability and supply concerns

Energy markets have experienced significant volatility during the week of October 13, 2026, driven by conflict in the Middle East and concerns over winter supplies. The price of European natural gas, benchmarked by the Dutch TTF, reached its highest level since December 2022, peaking at approximately 87 euros per megawatt-hour on October 14, before cooling to 84.80 euros. Brent crude oil has remained elevated near 106 dollars per barrel, impacted by ongoing regional tensions and attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

Factors contributing to the price surge include supply disruptions of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and lower-than-average gas storage levels across the European Union, which stood at approximately 73.7% to 74% mid-week. Germany’s reserves are particularly low at roughly 59.96%. Consequently, several LNG carriers originally bound for Asia have diverted toward Europe to bolster inventory ahead of winter. Competition for global LNG supplies remains intense as both Asian and European markets seek to secure fuel.

European governments are expected to address these rising costs during an upcoming summit on October 15-16. Market observers note that while recent shifts in vessel routes aim to mitigate the shortage, the overall energy outlook remains fragile due to continued disruptions in the Persian Gulf.