IMF warns of economic risks from Middle East conflict

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the prolonged conflict in the Middle East as the primary threat to the stability of regional and Central Asian economies. During a press conference at the annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on October 15, 2026, Jihad Azour, the director for the Middle East and Central Asia, stated that the war is causing an uneven economic shock, placing extreme pressure on the most directly affected nations.

Azour highlighted that disruptions to energy production, critical infrastructure, and shipping routes, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent escalations involving US-Israeli-led attacks on Iran, remain major concerns. While pre-war financial surpluses and energy stockpiles initially mitigated the impact, the IMF warns that these buffers are now depleting. With lower inventories and reduced spare capacity, any further instability could trigger significant price volatility and macroeconomic instability across the region.

The IMF intends to publish a more comprehensive economic outlook for the region on October 22, 2026. The organization emphasized that the long-term outlook depends on the speed at which trade and energy production can return to normal operational levels.