Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Brazil's presidential runoff

Brazil is preparing for the second round of presidential elections scheduled for October 25, following a first round on October 4 where right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly outperformed incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 47.03% to 45.16% of the vote.

Recent polling data reveals a tight race. A Quaest institute survey conducted October 10-13 showed Bolsonaro leading with 46% against Lula's 44%, while a subsequent Datafolha survey from October 13-14 placed Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49%. The Datafolha results indicate that Lula has narrowed the gap compared to previous readings, which had shown a four-point lead for the senator.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, remains the frontrunner in both surveys, although the margins fall within the statistical error of ±2%. The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,520 voters, while the Quaest survey included 2,154 respondents. The upcoming runoff on October 25 will determine the next president of Brazil, with voter indecision and blank ballots remaining factors in the final outcome.