Oil prices reach five-month high amid global geopolitical instability

Global oil prices reached their highest levels in five months on October 20-21, 2026, driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Brent crude surged to over $111 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed toward $110, reflecting a high geopolitical risk premium. Concerns were fueled by reports from Kpler indicating that at least 18 ships have been attacked in the last two weeks, alongside specific threats from Houthi forces against Saudi Aramco facilities and ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the violence, energy flows from the Persian Gulf have shown resilience, with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stating that exports have recovered to approximately 80% of pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the global supply landscape is shifting as Russia prepares to export diesel following the lifting of U.S. sanctions, and the United States explores sourcing heavy crude from Venezuela for processing in Indian refineries. Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref reiterated the country's intent to control the Strait of Hormuz, citing no alternative options.

Market volatility persists as refined product deliveries remain constrained. Authorities continue to monitor supply routes closely as the energy crisis triggers social unrest in various European urban centers, with future market stability depending on the security of maritime logistics and redirected supply chains.