Global oil market shifts toward oversupply amid cooling demand

The global crude oil market is increasingly moving toward a surplus, as high prices continue to suppress consumer demand. According to recent reports from major financial institutions, the concerns regarding potential supply shortages are subsiding, replaced by risks of a persistent global oversupply.

Financial data from JPMorgan indicates that the market reached a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, which widened to 1.4 million barrels per day in October. This figure approaches the 2025 average of 1.3 million barrels per day. Conversely, analysts at Goldman Sachs offer a slightly different perspective, suggesting that the market remained in equilibrium throughout September and October. These conflicting assessments coincide with a noted recovery in exports from the Persian Gulf.

This trend persists despite ongoing geopolitical volatility, specifically the escalation of Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, where five such incidents have been recorded since Sunday. While supply chain fears are currently being mitigated by demand-side factors, the stability of export routes remains a point of observation for global markets.