Revisiting the 1960 'Doomsday' population study

As of today, November 13, 2026, public attention has returned to a 1960 scientific article published in the journal Science titled 'Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026'. The study was authored by Austro-American cybernetics expert Heinz von Foerster and his students, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot, who utilized 2,000 years of historical population data to model future growth trends.

The authors’ mathematical model predicted that if population growth continued at the observed historical rate, the global population would approach infinity on this specific date. They famously noted that humanity would not perish from starvation but rather from suffocation due to extreme overcrowding. However, the researchers clarified that this was not a literal prediction of a physical apocalypse or a catastrophic event occurring on this day.

Instead, the paper served as a mathematical demonstration designed to highlight the long-term dangers of unchecked population expansion. By projecting these figures, the team intended to provoke academic discussion regarding the limits of human growth. Today, the date is remembered more as a milestone in the history of predictive modeling and demographic discourse rather than the realization of an actual extinction event.