Global oil market volatility as Strait of Hormuz remains restricted

The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted global oil supplies, with daily traffic dropping from 70 ships to between two and five vessels. On May 11, 2026, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated that the market loses approximately 100 million barrels per week due to the closure. Independent analysts estimate a net global loss of 9 to 12 million barrels daily despite pipeline diversions. On March 11, 2026, the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in an unprecedented move to stabilize the market. JP Morgan projections indicate that if the strait remains closed until September 1, Brent crude prices could reach 151 dollars per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. Conversely, a June 1 reopening could keep average annual prices at 96 dollars. Current analysis from Allied Shipbroking suggests global oil stocks may fall to 98 days of coverage by late May 2026, down from 101 days previously.