Experts discuss potential de facto end to the war in Ukraine

At the Kyiv Security Forum in late April, experts and officials discussed the possibility that the war in Ukraine may be nearing a de facto conclusion. Analysts noted that outcomes depend on both the battlefield situation and the outcome of the U.S. November elections. Ukrainian military officials and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have raised concerns about a potential new Russian mobilization, similar to the one in fall 2022. However, Evelyn Farkas of the McCain Institute argues that economic constraints may prevent Vladimir Putin from initiating a large-scale mobilization. Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker asserts that Ukraine’s current position is stronger than before. He claims that Kyiv now produces 60-70% of its own military equipment, reducing reliance on Western aid. Volker expressed confidence that Ukraine could continue the war even if U.S. supplies were halted, relying instead on European support. President Zelenskyy acknowledged he expects increasing international pressure regarding the conflict by autumn.